Our planet was struck by an inexplicable cosmic storm some 1300 years ago. It left traces in the ice cores of Antarctica and tree rings all across the world. The event then happened again 200 years later, but this time it was 60% stronger. They were thoroughly examined by experts, who discovered that six of these cosmic storms had affected our planet in the last few thousand years. These are now referred to as the Miyake incidents.
There is no connection between Miyake incidents and frequent solar storms that strike Earth. They are far more potent, and it is still unknown where they came from. According to studies, such a thing occurs on average once per thousand years. That’s an issue because it would be disastrous if a Miyake scenario happened right now. Modern equipment, including as satellites, internet connections, and even long-distance power lines and transformers, will be severely harmed. However, the most important query is: How can we know that such an event occurred in the past? What traces of the Miyake occurrences remain on Earth? Finally, and most crucially, where does the strange cosmic storm that periodically seems to strike Earth originate from? Tree rings hold the key to solving the riddle.
At first, that might seem strange, but let’s look at what happens when cosmic radiation bombards the earth. The chemical makeup of the Earth’s atmosphere is altered when a significant stream of high-energy radiation strikes it. Particularly, the plentiful nitrogen atoms in the atmosphere can be changed into an isotope of carbon when charged cosmic particles interact with them. The air, oceans, vegetation, and animals all absorb radioactive carbon-14. In this manner, a yearly record of radiation in tree rings can be produced. Radiocarbon is rare compared to the carbon isotopes that occur naturally on Earth. Only in the upper atmosphere does it develop when cosmic rays strike nitrogen atoms and set off a nuclear reaction.
Every year, trees are known to add a new growth ring. We may be able to establish a trustworthy record of radiation storms that may have struck Earth thousands of years ago if we can link the spikes in radiocarbon abundance with the growth rings in trees. Japanese physicist F. Miyake discovered something peculiar in 2012. Around 774 CE, she noticed a dramatic one-year increase in radiocarbon content in the rings of Japanese cedar trees. Then, in 2013, a new spike in 993 CE tree ring data was discovered. Six well-researched and well acknowledged radiocarbon spikes can be attributed to a rapid rise in radiocarbon levels over time.
The Miyake incidents are those instances when carbon 14 production spikes. These surges can be caused by numerous cosmic occurrences. Solar flares may seem like an easy explanation given that the Sun is the most active celestial body in our area. The most explosive occurrences in the solar system are solar flares. On the Sun, they appear as bright dots. A powerful burst of radiation caused by the release of magnetic energy linked to sunspots is represented by flares. The results, however, cast doubt on the notion that solar flares are responsible for these spikes when the scientists employed computer models to examine tree ring data on the six known Miyake incidents.
To retrace the 10,000-year process, the researchers modeled the entire carbon cycle. In their research, scientists created intricate curves that may clarify the connection between the solar activity cycle’s long-suspected astronomical influence on modifying radiocarbon generation in Earth’s atmosphere. For instance, the area under each curve in this graph displays the radiocarbon density for each of the six recognized Miyake occurrences. Additionally, this curve displays the length of each occurrence. It gave them enough information to determine whether the timing of the carbon rise is related to solar flares. More information is available for the incidents in 774 and 993 CE, two of the six documented events. With support from numerous trees in both the Northern and Southern hemispheres, they appear to be globally coherent. The most recent ring data makes the incident of the year 774 even more noticeable. It seems to have an impact that is ten times greater than the Carrington incident of 1859.
A strong geomagnetic storm known as the Carrington event caused telegraph lines to catch fire. Even planet-wide auroras were caused by it. The Carrington event continues to be the most powerful geomagnetic storm ever observed. It took place just a few months before the solar cycle 10 maxima. Geomagnetic storms may therefore become more frequent as the Sun approaches the peak of its current solar cycle in July 2025. The crew discovered several discrepancies after analyzing the data for the event of 774, though. While some trees showed a rapid increase in radiocarbon for a year in select regions of the world, the majority of trees showed a delayed increase over two to three years. The researchers came at the conclusion that a single Miyake event may have really been triggered by multiple minor outbursts rather than a single instantaneous explosion or flare.
A supernova explosion might be the root of the problem. For a long time, astronomers have conjectured that a supernova would have been visible in 774 CE. Their search for more connections between the radiocarbon spike and supernova explosions was sparked by this. However, it’s not an easy task. Both radiation spikes and supernovas without any associated spikes have been discovered. Additionally, some occurrences may be connected to superflares from M dwarf stars. But regrettably, the reason of the Miyake incidents still cannot be satisfactorily explained by a straightforward theory. According to historical data, a Miyake occurrence might happen again sooner or later.
The issue is that a lot has changed since the previous incident. The internet will end if a Miyake event comparable to the one in the year 774 happens today. Additionally, infrastructure may sustain damage, and deadly radiation levels will be exposed to air travelers. Understanding the nature of Miyake occurrences and the precise physical phenomenon that produces them is crucial. We might be able to foresee them in the future once we have a better knowledge.
FAQ
What would happen in a Miyake event?
A grand solar minimum, a special kind of solar event in which the Sun undergoes a decline in solar activity, notably in the quantity of sunspots, is referred to as a “Miyake event.” A Miyake event has an impact on Earth’s climate and is named for the Japanese scientist Fusa Miyake, who was the first to find evidence of such an event in tree ring data. The amount of solar radiation that reaches Earth decreases as the Sun goes into a grand solar minimum. Earth’s temperature has been correlated historically with grand solar minimums, however the precise effects are still being investigated. It’s crucial to remember that study on the effects of Miyake events on climate is still underway and that a variety of factors other than solar activity contribute to the complexity of Earth’s climate system. Comprehending these occurrences is essential for forecasting and alleviating possible climate impacts on Earth.
Will there be another Miyake event?
It is difficult to forecast certain future solar phenomena, such as a grand solar minimum or another Miyake event. Complex processes within the Sun affect solar activity, and accurate prediction of these events is still unknown. Although the Sun experiences regular cycles of solar minimums and maximums, there is no certainty that a particular kind of grand solar minimum, similar to a Miyake event, will occur. Scholars persist in examining past data, tree ring records, and additional proxies in order to comprehend solar activity patterns and recognize prospective future changes. Understanding the Sun’s cycles and forecasting any notable variations in solar activity need constant observation of the Sun using space-based devices and solar observations. There is a chance that there will be another grand solar minimum, although it is unclear when or if this will happen. The goal of current solar physics research is to improve our comprehension and forecasting of solar behavior and its possible effects on Earth’s climate.
How likely is a Miyake event?
It is difficult to say for sure when a great solar minimum, or “Miyake event,” which is characterized by decreased solar activity, will occur. Complex mechanisms occur within the Sun that affect solar activity. Although scientists can pinpoint past examples of vast solar minima, accurate predictions of future events are yet unknown. The intrinsic variability of the Sun’s behavior means that solar cycles are not totally regular, and this includes the timing and intensity of upcoming solar minimums and grand solar minima. The goal of current solar physics research is to have a better understanding of these cycles and to forecast solar activity. Although a Miyake event or other comparable solar phenomenon might happen in the future, it is currently difficult to predict when or whether one would. Updating our knowledge of solar dynamics and making better predictions of possible solar occurrences and their effects on Earth’s climate require constant observation and study.
How many Miyake events are there?
Evidence of at least one Miyake event from the ninth century has been found, according to Japanese scientist Fusa Miyake. Tree ring analysis was used to identify this event, which showed a rise in carbon-14 levels linked to an increase in solar activity. Even though the details of this particular Miyake event are well known, study is still being done to find other such incidents throughout Earth’s history. To look into possible grand solar minima and comprehend the Sun’s behavior over longer timescales, scientists examine a variety of proxies, such as ice cores and tree rings. Although the Miyake event of the ninth century is a noteworthy finding, the exact number of such events throughout history is still being looked into, and future research developments may turn up more examples.
What is the tree ring dating method?
A scientific technique called tree ring dating, or dendrochronology, uses the patterns of growth rings in a tree’s trunk to estimate the age of the tree. A tree normally creates a new ring every year, and different environmental elements like temperature, rainfall, and climate can affect the ring’s breadth, density, and other properties. Through the analysis of a sample core taken from a tree, researchers are able to construct a time-based series of rings. Trees within an area might share patterns that contribute to the creation of a master chronology, which is used as a date reference. Dendrochronology is a useful technique for determining the age of historical and archaeological structures, reconstructing historical climatic conditions, and tracking environmental changes over time. Scientists can create timelines with yearly or even seasonal clarity because to the accuracy of tree ring dating, which offers a rare view into the past.
